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击的金融周期指标显示未来9-12个月全球工业生产周期是温和复苏的。对于需求前置的影响，重点观察欧美：其或均未从中国抢进口，欧盟整体也没有抢进口特征；从库存角度来看，美国并未大量累库，欧盟库存确实有所抬升，不过领先指标尚未显示去库倾向。　　报告摘要　　一、2026出口初窥：关税冲击与需求前置影响几何？　　（一）9月出口超预期：基数效应与非美需求韧性　　整体而言，1）去年存在低基数。去年9月出口环比-

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